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Posted - 11/28/2019 12:42:52 PM |
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A thoughtful article from the Surt
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| I am not a fan of changing the scoring system for our single QBs system. I do think however that the scoring system idea for 2 QBs is creative and the best suggestion so far for the possible change. Happy Turkey day boys!! You can |
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Posted - 11/29/2019 8:05:46 AM |
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Happiest Thanksgiving
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| Hope you all enjoyed as terrific a Thanksgiving as I. Josh Allen delivered a big Thanksgiving treat to all of America. Hel of a day... |
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Coach Cowher Tomlin
Football Freak
997 posts
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Fu: 100.96 |
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Posted - 12/1/2019 9:12:38 AM |
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Scribbles
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| There will no Scribbles until our evil Overlord disables the fucking ad bullshit that keeps fucking my shit up. Good luck to all. |
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Posted - 12/1/2019 10:59:26 AM |
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Get Your 300 On, Everybody
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| Great ads this year. Bought $1200 worth of stuff - mostly McDonalds chicken tenders. |
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Posted - 12/3/2019 11:43:10 AM |
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The thing that gets me about the QB issue
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Here's the thing that stands out the most to me about all the suggestions involving changing how we handle QBs.
What exactly is the problem and why does it need to be fixed?
If the problem is that QBs are going later in the draft than other players that score less points than QBs, why is that a problem? I certainly don't see it as being a problem. I can see why people may think it doesn't make sense, but to me it doesn't seem like the kind of issue that would require making major changes to how we run the league.
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Posted - 12/6/2019 7:37:07 AM |
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Thank you Stu
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| The voice of reason has spoken. If it ain’t broke , why fix it? |
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Posted - 12/6/2019 10:21:38 AM |
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QBs - what if wins mattered?
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Billy's right that QB scoring ain't broke. But I do think it's a little rusty.
Ragnarok scoring was designed to better reflect a player's true impact on NFL games than standard fantasy scoring systems do. And yet, good NFL QBs are in short supply and good fantasy QBs are not. I believe this is because game stats tell an inaccurate picture of a QBs impact on the outcome. Far too often a good QB on a good team gets a lead and then bleeds the clock. And in the same game, a QB on a mediocre team throws a ton of passes in a futile attempt to make the final score look respectable. Just last night, most of Dak's points came in the final 12 minutes of an unwinnable game whose final score doesn't reflect the ass kicking the game was. So the big advantage Mitch Trubisky had in stats and impact during the first 3 quarters was eroded by Dak's garbage time stats.
So end-of-game stats leads to fantasy QB scores that don't differentiate between the guys who truly played the best and those that didn't. And I think that lack of differentiation is the problem. That's something we could fix.
What if we looked at including wins and losses in our QB scoring system? Not sure how many points, but something substantial. Like adding 6-8 points if the QB wins the NFL game and subtracting 6-8 points if they lose. The goal is to boost the stats of the good QB bleeding the clock and undermine the garbage time stats of the not-as-good QB.
On first glance this should make the top QBs more valuable; guys like Lamar, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc would have another big glut of points. And the bad-team gunslingers that won't have jobs next year (Jameis Winston, I'm looking at you) would be way less useful. I think this should have two big effects:
1) Widening the gap between the best QBs and the rest of the pack
2) Making the best QBs more valuable early in the draft
Both of those outcomes sound good to me.
Now, I also see some flaws or at least question marks about this idea. One, I wonder if this undermines the coach position. Two, I wonder if this just allows a new crop of unworthy QBs to be more valuable, like Tom Brady, who sucks. But looking through the current NFL standings, most of the teams with great records have great QBs. There are still some meh guys with great records, like Jimmy G or Cousins, but those guys are better than Rivers or Carr or someone like that, right? And very few really good QBs are on losing teams. Matt Ryan, maybe? Another potential issue is that WRs also benefit from garbage time, so including wins and losses for QBs doesn't fully solve the garbage time problem. But we do have 3 WRs and only 1 QB, so maybe just having more WR options makes that not such a big deal.
Any thoughts? Maybe I could do a little data analysis and compare QB scores with and without win/loss points after the season is over, see if it makes a difference. |
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Posted - 12/6/2019 12:34:36 PM |
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Points vs. Wins
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I too think the QB issue ain't broke. It does lead me to that lingering anguish of not defending my title. If points are the main thing (which is what I get in this discussion, after overall wins) beacuse we want to reward elite QB's from the pack, then the overall issue of total points really comes to issue. Then we are drafting for those QB's who are likely to get those bonus points (if we went with Jeremy's thoughts) so you can rule out tiebreakers in overall wins. In turn, why do we even have division records? Is it just to model the NFL? If points is the second tie breaker (which is fine) then the chances it goes to the division record is less than...what 2%?
So if that's true, I'm leery of adding bonus points and incentives like that. Then it waters down the play on the field (trash play like the last 8 minutes from Tom Brady against Texas). With the proposed negative 6-8 points, TB (and I hate that fucker) would be stripped of most of his points. He basically had 0 until then. But... if it weren't Tom Brady (say Aaron Rodgers or Mahomes...) and I had that QB and needed those points to win. .. Eh. I'd be like, Whatever, and stop watching games after the third quarter. Are you picking up what I'm lying down?
It feels crippling, and back alley. If QB's aren't drafted until round 8 becasue they aren't as important or your bell cow, don't draft a QB until round 8. Find a bell cow from another position.
My two cents today. I could be swayed, as for anything. |
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Posted - 12/6/2019 2:11:08 PM |
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And another thing...
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| I didn't come here to read. Go Bass, Go Bills, fuck the Medical Center |
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Posted - 12/6/2019 4:01:58 PM |
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I'm really posting this just to make Joe read
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The reason that QBs don't get drafted until the 8th round is because after the top 4-5 QBs are taken, the next 10-12 QBs are all relatively equal to each other at draft time. If you miss out on the top tier QBs, it really doesn't matter which QB from the big clusterfuck that follows you end up drafting. At that point in time, they are basically equal to each other (especially when considering what their average weekly production will be). Think back to your draft prep this year, was there a huge difference between your QB6 and your QB16? My guess is that there wasn't. Unless you have specific players that you do or don't want on your team, drafting anyone from that group is fine.
If your goal is to get QBs drafted higher, you need to eliminate the clusterfuck at Tier 2 or there's no reason not to wait on drafting a QB (especially when you consider that only 1 of those first 4 QBs taken actually made our playoffs this year). I don't think any of the QB proposals that I can remember seemed to do that. More often than not, they seem to make the clusterfuck bigger.
As for Jeremy's proposal, I don't see why a QB should get negative points because his team's defense gave up 41 points. Nor do I think a QB should get 6-8 bonus points because the other team's kicker missed a list minute FG in a 10-7 game.
Fuck the Bass. |
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Posted - 12/6/2019 4:22:59 PM |
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Let’s talk about why we are even discussing this
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| once again, Stu is the voice. But where did this all start? It didn’t start with points Zach. Joe, it didn’t start with Fucking the Medical Center. It started when Koo, a couple years ago, full of hubris after winning about 7 championships in a row, thought he knew what was best for our Ragnarok. Let’s add an QB to the roster he said. We need to value QBs more he said. Really what was going on was Football guys website was full of articles about 2QB leagues that year and he thought to himself, (full of hubris) self, I think we need to make our league evolve. It’s obviously gotten to easy for me. Well, here we are a few years later and it’s not so easy anymore. The rule changes implemented in the past couple years have dramatically changed the landscape of Ragnarok for the better IMHO. There is no need to make our league a 2 QB league. Now, more than ever, Draft prep is key to the success of ones team. That is what makes Ragnarok the best. Not 2QBs, not PPR not any of that goofy ass shit. Everyone has a chance now. What are ya gonna do with it? |
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Posted - 12/6/2019 4:38:48 PM |
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Eliminating the clusterfuck is the exact idea
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| Damn right there's a clusterfuck at QB. Isn't that a bad thing? Isn't that worth trying to fix? Ragnarok has its own scoring system because traditional scoring systems sucked. If it's not worth drafting QBs because they're all the same in our scoring system now, doesn't that kind of suck? Shouldn't we do something about it? |
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Posted - 12/6/2019 4:49:36 PM |
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Joe reads?
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I do want to keep wins the priority. It’s possible to win a handful of games 48-42 (or whatever) and still be fucked. Add a Walter White Chemist sliding scale for QB’s and it’s not fantasy football. But I appreciate Bill’s voice. He sounds like a winner.
Speaking of winners, If anyone wants to be a donor for my kids, we need $20,000... 😬 |
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Posted - 12/6/2019 6:00:43 PM |
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I think we should continue this conversation in person
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| Tomorrow night (12/7) at the Cat's Cradle in between bands/songs at the SCOTS show. If you don't want to talk about this topic, I'm fine with whatever anyone wants to talk about. |
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Posted - 12/7/2019 10:21:45 AM |
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Stu, any chance you are still in town Sunday morning?
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| I can’t make tonight’s show. Any chance you are sticking around for a bit? Would love to catch up! |
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Posted - 12/7/2019 5:42:03 PM |
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Yes. I will be around for a bit on Sunday.
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| I'd love to bash the Bass with anyone/everyone. |
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Head of Scouting
Gjallarhorn player
529 posts
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Fu: 99.57 |
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Posted - 12/8/2019 7:41:34 PM |
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Billy is correct when he said Draft Prep is key
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I’m going to add another post to this already heavily argued topic. I’m going to use quotes of those who have voiced their opinion and I hope I don’t offend nor take their words out of context.
“What exactly is the problem and why does it need to be fixed? If the problem is that QBs are going later in the draft than other players that score less points than QBs, why is that a problem? I certainly don't see it as being a problem.” QB’s going later in the draft is not the problem, but it is a reflection of a problem that does exist in the scoring system.
“Ragnarok has its own scoring system because traditional scoring systems sucked.” However this scoring system has created a “clusterfuck” at the QB tier 2-3 level. “If it's not worth drafting QBs because they're all the same in our scoring system now, doesn't that kind of suck? Shouldn't we do something about it?” QB’s at this level have a lack of statistical diversity. “Damn right there's a clusterfuck at QB”, “they are basically equal to each other (especially when considering what their average weekly production will be).” What needs to be done is, take that clusterfuck of quarterbacks, separate and define them as to who is better, and appropriately reward those who are better. This can only be done with a modification of the QB scoring system.
The reason it needs to be fixed “Think back to your draft prep this year, was there a huge difference between your QB6 and your QB16?” That statement is the argument. If you cannot define the difference between 6-16 then that is the problem! “Shouldn't we do something about it?” “Draft prep is key to the success of one’s team”, and by doing this it will indeed require more draft prep and scrutiny of the QB position.
I know my proposal of an altered QB scoring system is not a popular one, but I believe that it addresses the key issues raised by those who have argued for and against, and does not require making major changes to how we run the league.
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Posted - 12/9/2019 4:12:49 PM |
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Maybe the REAL answer...
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...is a 3 QB league. Suck on that one, fantasy purists!
As always, regardless of outcome, it's really cool to see so many people passionate about Ragnarok fantasy football. And though we may not be able to agree on the QB issue, I think it's safe to say we all still fervently agree that Ragnarok is the best goddamn league on the planet. Nay--in the universe.
That's important context to keep in the back of our minds as we debate.
One thing I want to re-emphasize: suggesting changes to the QB position/scoring doesn't at all mean I think things are inherently wrong or bad. But just because things are "fine" doesn't mean they couldn't be improved upon or made even more fun. This mindset is at the core of what makes Ragnarok what it is--we don't sit back on our taut buttocks and indefinitely accept things the way they are, but rather, we're always looking at ways to improve... To make something great even greater. Sometimes I think that the "ain't broke, don't fix it" logic doesn't take this into account.
For the record, I do still think 2 QBs is the best solution--incorporating some of the suggestions already made. But I also recognize that a major change creates more major logistical obstacles. I won't rehash this argument b/c it's gotten tiresome for me to do (and I'm sure for you to hear or read).
I want to focus on the discussion about the QB scoring system, as I think it represents a more easily executable course of action. I think the idea behind separating QBs on winning teams from losing teams is spot on--but as has been pointed out, this doesn't necessarily tell the whole story (QBs on teams with bad defenses, etc.).
I've been thinking for awhile about the concept of "situational scoring--" something that we Asians have been ruminating over in our dankest, darkest opium dens for decades now. It's time the White Man get in on the action. Frankly, situational scoring could apply to all positions, but for the purposes of this discussion, let's use only QBs.
There's no question (in my mind, at least), that certain segments of NFL games are more important than others in terms of a pathway to an NFL team winning or losing. Two extreme examples:
*A first quarter passing TD is less valuable than a 4th quarter passing TD
*A passing TD that puts a team ahead by 6 is more valuable than a passing TD that cuts a 28-pt lead to 22-pts (or increases a 22-pt lead to 28-pts).
Of course, it's not as simple as making all 4th quarter yards/scores count more than 1st quarter yards/scores. Nor is it as simple as making yards/scores in all close game situations count more than yards/scores in blowouts. The answer would need to be some sort of hybrid of the two.
I fully admit to not knowing the answer here, or the "secret sauce" in terms of a scoring formula that could be applied. I'm only HALF-Asian, after all. But to me, a scoring system that more strongly weights yards and TDs (and amplifies the negative impact of turnovers) in game situations deemed to be more impactful to a team's chances of winning would be revolutionary.
It would go beyond the idea of simply adding points for wins or subtracting points for losses--which is well-intentioned, but has some holes. It would reward players making clutch/impactful plays. And if you really wanted to nerd out on it, one way to ensure that this system still rewards players on good teams more than bad teams would be to further weight scoring so that it's not a simple bell-curve--for example, a TD that cuts a 28-pt lead to 22 (e.g. garbage time) would not count as much as a TD that increases a 22-pt lead to 28 (e.g. killer instinct time).
Again, this is far from polished. I don't know if any other fantasy football league has tried something like this--I haven't seen any mention of it. But it would be a groundbreaking change--forward-thinking and awesome, in my opinion. Though some of you may just think it's batshit crazy, which is of course your right as a (mostly) law-abiding citizen. Fuck it, I don't know. Thoughts? |
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Head of Scouting
Gjallarhorn player
529 posts
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Fu: 99.57 |
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Posted - 12/9/2019 7:13:37 PM |
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Wow!
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| Sean, you make a strong case for opium. |
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Posted - 12/10/2019 7:55:30 AM |
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Holy Crap!!!
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I spent half of Monday formulating how I was going to respond to Dave's post and then Sean came along and vomited right into the middle of all the diarrhea the rest of us have been dropping into this toilet bowl. Hopefully I can make some kind of sense of this mess. I'm not sure if should try to figure out who's responsible for each little bit or just try and flush the whole thing at once. Like Dave, I hope no one takes offense at what I'm saying. My intent isn't to offend - I'm just trying to be honest and state my opinion.
First of all, I'm not against change. I just don't want it to be done purely for the sake of change, there needs to be a good reason for it. I still don't see what is negatively affecting the league to the point of needing to change how we handle QBs. Maybe I'm stuck in my ways. Maybe I'm afraid of radical innovation. Or maybe I'm afraid to potentially waste a full season of a great league because we decided to try something that "might work out really well" and it didn't. What I do know is that it will take some serious convincing to get me to agree to major scoring/roster changes. You can say things like "I thought this league was based on..." or "Why can't we make something great even greater..." or any other kind of comment like that and it won't have any influence on me. You may as well be saying "Make America Great Again," because when I see those types of statements what actually registers in my mind is "Pay attention to my catchphrase, because it might get you to agree with me more than what I'm actually saying will."
The problem of the QB clusterfuck has nothing to do with our scoring system. It's just a fact of Fantasy Football. The complete randomness of when a QB actually has an above average game is what causes so many QBs to be ranked so close to each other at draft time. There are a few QBs that seem like they will have more of those types of games than those stuck in the clusterfuck and that is what gets them drafted earlier. So you can't break up the clusterfuck by only rewarding the top tier QBs or by penalizing average performances - those things will only make the clusterfuck bigger. If you truly believe that out of all of the millions of people who play fantasy football we're the ones who can solve this problem - well, thanks for the vote of confidence but don't hold your breath on that one. That isn't to say we shouldn't try. We just need to look at it realistically and address the things that will cause separation within that group of QBs at draft time. I have no clue what those things would be or even how to figure out what they are. And I have no interest in trying to figure it out. But if someone else wants to try, go for it.
Fantasy Football is about assigning a point value to each player's on field performance. Period. End of sentence. Trying to create a system based on game situation is Fantasy Fantasy Football. And by that I mean that it's a fun concept to discuss, but it's not realistic. It's nowhere as easy to actually implement that type of system as one might think it would be. For instance, when did garbage time start in the Broncos-Texans game this past Sunday? Was it the last 5 minutes? The last 10 minutes? Was it at Halftime when the score was 31-3. Was it when the Broncos scored on the opening drive of the 2nd half and went up 38-3? Or was it at some other point chosen for some other reason? In order to create a situation based scoring system, you have to account for every possible situation. Plus, Keith will need to write a program capable of recognizing all the variables, otherwise the entire scoring system will be the equivalent of our system for onside kicks and everything will have to be manually entered. (BTW, the Lions had a successful onside kick against the Bears on Thanksgiving Day) If someone is able to successfully come up with that type of system, I'd prefer to see it in action before applying it to this league. Heck, I may even be willing to play in the test league for it.
That's all I can think of right now. I may have more to say later.
Go WRMC and Go Blast. BIFROST IS COMING!!! |
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